ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 46 Issue 10 > 2020,46(10):1261-1271. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2020.10.001 Prev Next
Research and Application Experiment on PostProcessing Technology of Typhoon Rainstorm Forecast Based on MultiModel QPF Fusion
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Abstract:
Based on statistical verification and forecast bias analysis on the rainstorm processes of landed typhoons in 2018, we improve the observationbased ensemble subsetting technique that has been applied on operational forecast, to obtain objective products of typhoon precipitation with higher resolution and forecast accuracy, using multimodel forecasts from several centers, the realtime typhoon locations and track forecasts from National Meteorological Centre. The multimodel forecasts include precipitation and typhoon track ensemble forecasts and operational high resolution forecasts from ECMWF and NCEP, the forecasts of main regional models (GRAPESMeso, GRAPES3 km, RMAPS, SMSWARMS) in China. The results show that the spatial resolution of the improved objective product is significantly promoted compared with the previous version. The forecast accuracy is also significantly improved compared with the operational deterministic forecast from ECMWF and NCEP, and the improvement rate is 15%-20% roughly. The threat score of the improved objective product is also higher than the forecast of regional models, and slightly higher than the QPF of forecaster. In addition, studies have shown that the accuracy of the improved objective product has a high correlation with the selection of reference track. The threat score of objective product based on the average track of 3 to 5 best members is higher than the one based on the average track of all members. The observationbased ensemble subsetting and QPF fusion technique based on probability matching, is helpful for improving 〖JP2〗the typhoon rainstorm forecast of the global and regional models.
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