Overview of Climate Prediction for the Summer 2019 and the Precursory Signals
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Abstract:
In summer 2019, precipitation in south of China was above normal, but below normal in north of China. Much more precipitation was found in Northeast China and the south of the Yangtze River. The precipitation above normal in the south of the Yangtze River, the east of Southwest China, the east of Northeast China, the central part of the Northwest China, and the precipitation below normal in central and northeastern Inner Mongolia were well predicted in March. The updated forecast released in May predicted the main rainy centers in southern China would move southward, and this corrected forecast is more consistent with the observation. The prediction for July-August released in June modified the precipitation prediction trend for Northeast China, and accurately predicted the characteristics〖JP2〗 of much more precipi〖JP〗tation in this region. The predictions on the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon, the rainy season in Southwest China, Meiyu, and the rainy season in North China were predicted well. However, there were deficiencies in the precipitation prediction in summer 2019. The prediction of precipitation anomaly along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was wrong. The range and the anomaly degree of the precipitation above normal in Northeast China were underestimated. In addition, this paper preliminarily analyzes the failure of the snow area anomaly of QinghaiTibetan Plateau, the El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event and the tropical Indian Ocean warming in winter 2018-2019 indicating the precipitation anomaly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The externalforcing factors and the associated atmospheric circulation between 2018 and 2019 are compared. It is pointed out that the research on the complexity of the mismatch and asymmetry between the summer precipitation and the traditional impact factors needs to be further carried out.