ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 46 Issue 3 > 2020,46(3):420-428. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2020.03.013 Prev Next
Comparison of OTS, MOS, OMOS Methods and Their Combinations Applied in 3 h Precipitation Forecasting out to 72 h
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Abstract:
The performance of three statistical postprocessing methods and their combinations for 3 h precipitation forecasts out to 72 h from May to September are compared in this paper. They are optimal threat score (OTS) correction, model output statistics (MOS) and MOS with priorspatial observation predictors (OMOS). The 3 h precipitation forecasts of ECMWF model output (DMO), MOS, OMOS, and their OTS correction forecasts (DMOOTS, MOSOTS, OMOSOTS) are evaluated. The results show that MOSOTS method has the best performance in the short term forecast. At the same time, for the heavy precipitation forecast, MOSOTS also obviously outperforms the operational guidance (GD) forecast which integrates subjective and objective predictions. In the first 3 h precipitation forecast, OMOSOTS is the best method. For the first 3 h precipitation forecast, the TS scores of OMOSOTS for thresholds of 0.1, 3 and 10 mm per 3 h are improved about 73%, 198% and 483% than DMO respectively. And the bias score of OMOSOTS is close to 1. In the daily variation during summer time, the first 3 h precipitation forecast from OMOSOTS outperforms both MOSOTS and GD forecast in most days evaluated by TS and Bias scores for the threshhold of 0.1 mm per 3 h.
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