ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Comparison of OTS, MOS, OMOS Methods and Their Combinations Applied in 3 h Precipitation Forecasting out to 72 h
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National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; CMA Meteorological Observation Centre, Beijing 100081

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    Abstract:

    The performance of three statistical postprocessing methods and their combinations for 3 h precipitation forecasts out to 72 h from May to September are compared in this paper. They are optimal threat score (OTS) correction, model output statistics (MOS) and MOS with priorspatial observation predictors (OMOS). The 3 h precipitation forecasts of ECMWF model output (DMO), MOS, OMOS, and their OTS correction forecasts (DMOOTS, MOSOTS, OMOSOTS) are evaluated. The results show that MOSOTS method has the best performance in the short term forecast. At the same time, for the heavy precipitation forecast, MOSOTS also obviously outperforms the operational guidance (GD) forecast which integrates subjective and objective predictions. In the first 3 h precipitation forecast, OMOSOTS is the best method. For the first 3 h precipitation forecast, the TS scores of OMOSOTS for thresholds of 0.1, 3 and 10 mm per 3 h are improved about 73%, 198% and 483% than DMO respectively. And the bias score of OMOSOTS is close to 1. In the daily variation during summer time, the first 3 h precipitation forecast from OMOSOTS outperforms both MOSOTS and GD forecast in most days evaluated by TS and Bias scores for the threshhold of 0.1 mm per 3 h.

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History
  • Received:May 05,2019
  • Revised:February 21,2020
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 31,2020
  • Published:

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