ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 45 Issue 11 > 2019,45(11):1600-1610. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2019.11.010 Prev Next
Annual and Monthly Risk Assessment of Typhoon Disasters in China Based on the Information Diffusion Method
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Abstract:
By employing the typhoon disaster information, social and economic data of China during 1985-2014, spatio-temporal characteristics of annual and monthly typhoon direct economic losses in China were analyzed. Risk assessments were carried out by using the information diffusion method to provide reference for improving the capability of typhoon disaster risk management. The results are as following. Annual and monthly typhoon-caused direct economic losses from July to September in China show slightly increasing trends during 1985-2014. The monthly variations of direct economic losses are obvious, particularly in August, in which the disaster-caused typhoons are most and the economic losses are most serious in a year. Compared to the period 1985-1994, the range of monthly variations become greater and total economic losses in September and October are greater than in June and July in the recent two decades, i.e., 1995-2004 and 2005-2014. Along with the increasing of direct economic losses levels, the regions with middle and high risk levels are decreasing gradually. Under the condition with annual direct economic losses greater than or equal to 5 or 10 billion RMB yuan, risk probability in Zhejiang Province is the highest in China. Under the three risk levels (returning period=10, 20, 30 years), annual direct economic losses in Zhejiang, Guangdong, Fujian and Guangxi are kept at the specially serious degrees. Under the risk levels with 20 and 30 years returning periods, annual and monthly (August) direct economic losses in Shandong and Liaoning and annual losses in Hebei have also reached the specially serious degree. Thus, the defense response to typhoon should not be neglected in these regions.
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