ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Application of Analog Ensemble Rectifying Method in Objective Temperature Prediction
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

Institute of Urban Meteorology, Beijing 100089; Beijing Meteorological Observatory, Beijing 100089; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Model-based numerical prediction is often affected by bias when compared to local observations. In this study, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data were used to generate the analog ensemble (AnEn) prediction over the 15 national weather stations and 274 automatic stations of Beijing, with a focus on correcting ECMWF prediction of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures, 1-7 day ahead, twice a day. The analog of a forecast for a given location and time is defined as the observation that corresponds to a past prediction matching selected features of the current forecast. The best analogs form AnEn, which produces accurate predictions and a reliable quantification of their uncertainty with similar or superior skill compared to traditional ensemble methods while requiring considerably less real-time computational resources. An analysis of the performance of ECMWF and AnEn in space and time was presented. The results demonstrate that a short training period of 60 days may be a good compromise for the computational efficiency and the quality of deterministic predictions. Extending the training periods would further increase the prediction quality than optimizing the environmental parameters, no matter 1-month, 3-month or 6-month optimizations. AnEn correction results are better than the predictions generated by the forecasters, particularly for daily minimum temperatures. AnEn effectively reduces the bias of ECMWF predictions, resulting in a skilled downscaled prediction at the observation location, consistently over time and space. However, AnEn is not very effective in improving predictions of haze, precipitation, and strong winds, which may require a much longer training data set. Furthermore, this study tests the results over time and space to make sure the method’s reliability for the future smart grid forecast operation.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation
Related Videos

Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:March 11,2018
  • Revised:June 10,2019
  • Adopted:
  • Online: September 05,2019
  • Published:
Article QR Code

WeChat

Mobile website