ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 45 Issue 6 > 2019,45(6):820-830. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2019.06.008 Prev Next
Application of Generalized Extreme Value Distribution Model to Short-Duration Extreme Precipitation in Chongqing
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Abstract:
Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to fit the short duration (1, 3, 6 and 12 h) extreme precipitation sequence of 34 national weather stations in Chongqing from 1981 to 2016. The results are as follows: GEV distribution can well fit the short-duration extreme precipitation in Chongqing. As the precipitation lasts longer, the number of the national weather stations subject to Weibull (Frechet) distribution gradually decreases (increases). The spatial distributions of different return periods are basically similar under 10 a and over 20 a. The precipitation to the north of Yangtze River, which is located in the northwestern part of Chongqing, is obviously more than in the areas to the south. And in southeastern Chongqing, there is more precipitation in Pengshui. The precipitation centers are more concentrated with the increase of recurrence period, and the great value center in Northeast Chongqing moves northward as time goes on. When the absolute value of the shape parameter of GEV distribution function is close to or greater than 0.5, the extreme precipitation of the calculated high recurrence (longer than the sample length) is greatly deviated. If there exists prominent difference in the shape parameter of different-duration precipitation, the result appears to be contrary to objective reality.
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