ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 45 Issue 5 > 2019,45(5):705-712. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2019.05.012 Prev Next
Benefit Assessment of Geological Hazard Meteorological Services Based on Inverse Algorithm and Evaluation Method of Delphi
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Abstract:
Serious harm was caused by geological disasters induced by precipitation, and people’s lives and property were threatened. The assessing of meteorological services and disaster 〖JP2〗mitigation effect in geological〖JP〗 disaster is needed. Based on the disaster and direct economic losses and the weather forecast data from 2009 to 2016, the relationship between the disaster losses and meteorological service benefits is analyzed in the paper. By the inverse algorithm and the Delphi method, the assessing model is established in this paper. The parameterization entering into the model is successful. The input variables are accuracy as geological disaster weather forecast and the direct economic losses, the output are disaster prevention and mitigation benefit value and meteorological service direct economic benefits. The model was adopted to describe the capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation and meteorological service’s level and performed well in geological hazard meteorological benefit assessment in 2017.
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