ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Improving the Meiyu Simulation Using Spectral Nudging of SingleElement and MultiElement in HighResolution Regional Numerical Model
Author:
Affiliation:

Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou 310008

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    This paper reviews the development of the technology for seamless fine gridded weather forecasting in China since 2014. And the key technical difficulties in the future development are analyzed. It is pointed out that the high spatiotemporal resolution observations capturing the fine structure of weather systems, the analysis products by multisource data fusion, the realtime rapid updating assimilation and prediction system, the high resolution regional model providing shorttime and shortterm weather prediction, the global numerical forecast model providing 10 days’ weather forecasting, and the oceanatmosphere coupled ensemble prediction system providing 46 days’ weather prediction, have jointly established the premise and foundation of the seamless gridded weather forecasts. After nearly 5 years’ exploration and constant efforts, the technology system of seamless fine gridded forecasting with different temporal resolutions has been established. The highfrequency lagrangian extrapolation skills are used for 0-4 h forecasting based on GRAPESMeso model forecast products and radar data over China. For the 4 h to 30 d leadtime forecasting, it mainly depends on the downscaling, error correction, model output statistics and postprocessing methodologies based on regional and global models of different spatiotemporal resolutions to improve forecast skills and resolution. At the same time, automatic and intelligent interactive forecasting platform is developed to meet the demand of combining efficient objective forecasting with forecasters’ subjective intelligence. In order to assess and track the performance of high resolution gridded forecasting, a spatial analysis verification method based on gridded observation data is developed. It is also stressed that the future gridded forecasting technology system should be able to reflect the latest technology development including the artificial intelligence application, more advanced statistical postprocessing skills, key technics for consistency forecasting and unified complete technical architecture and standards.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation
分享
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:May 03,2018
  • Revised:August 29,2018
  • Adopted:
  • Online: June 06,2019
  • Published:

WeChat

Mobile website