ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 45 Issue 4 > 2019,45(4):577-586. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2019.04.012 Prev Next
Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2017
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Abstract:
Operational positioning, track, intensity and landfall point forecast errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in 2017 were evaluated on the base of CMA/STI’s best track dataset. The results show that the performance of TC positioning in 2017 was a little larger than in 2016, with an average error by all methods was 26.7 km. The overall track forecast accuracies within 72 h were not better than in 2015 in recent two years for both subjective and objective methods. Landfall prediction errors for the 24 h landfall point predictions of CMA were mainly less than 65 km, except for the landfall point of “Nesat” at Yilan Taiwan Province. The evaluation results could be strongly influenced by adopting different best tracks or operational realtime observed dataset from different official agencies.
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