ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Evaluation of East Asia Summer Climate Prediction by BCC Second-Generation Climate System Model
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Abstract:
Based on circulation and precipitation hindcast and real-time forecast data of BCC Second-Generation Climate System Model developed by National Climate Centre, evaluation works of East Asian summer climate prediction are carried by synchronized and lag correlation, partial correlation and combined EOF decomposition analysis. Results show the main spatial distribution of high and low level circulation and precipitation climatical fields can be well predicted, particularly the location of the heavy rainfall center and members of the monsoon system, but with some systematic biases. The model predict precipitation interannual variability in East Asia especially in China with poor skill, but has decent prediction ability on 500hPa geopotential height interannual variability, and its skill improves as the approaching of starting month. The model can predict the temporal and spatial distribution of the main modes of interannual variations of the East Asian climate with high skill. It can also catch the main characteristics of the response of East Asian climate variability in developing El Ni?o and decaying El Ni?o period，which mainly come from east patern El Ni?o events. Overall, BCC_Second-Generation Climate System Model model can predict the East Asian summer climate with decent skill, which can benefit the short-term climate prediction.
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