ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 45 Issue 3 > 2019,45(3):407-414. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2019.03.010 Prev Next
Prediction of Winter Haze Days in Anhui Province Based on East Asian Winter Monsoon Index
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Abstract:
Interannual variation in the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is closely related to that in winter haze days in the middle and eastern China, providing a possible physical factor for shortterm climate prediction of haze days. Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the meteorological observation data of Anhui Province from 1980 to 2016, the statistical analysis method is used to study the relationship between the number of haze days in Anhui Province and six different EAWM indices (EAWMI) in January, and the main EAWMI for winter haze days in different regions of Anhui Province are extracted, and then the monthly predictive model of winter haze days in Anhui Province is established and verified. The results show that: (1) The number of climatic haze days in January is negatively related to the six EAWMI. For both the northern part of the Huaihe River and regions between the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River, the correlation coefficient between the East Asia large trough intensity index and the number of climatic haze days is the highest. For along and to the south of the Yangtze River, the correlation coefficient between the Siberia highintensity index and the number of climatic haze days is the highest. (2) The prediction models for the number of haze days are established in three different regions, and all of them have passed the significance test with α=0.01 level. The verification results show that the predicted haze days are very similar with actual situations, and no predictive errors appear in three regions, which indicates that all the prediction models present a good predictive performance. (3) In the predictive work on winter haze days in Anhui Province, it is better to use the output by the ECMWF SYSTEM4 model than that by NCEP CFS2.
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