ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Study on a Synthetic Model Perturbation Method Based on SKEB and MultiPhysics for Regional Ensemble Forecast
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Abstract:
To investigate the application effect of stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) perturbation scheme, a regional ensemble forecast system (REFS) is constructed based on the WRF model. Sensitivity experiments on perturbation amplitude are conducted to find the functional characteristic of SKEB. Additionally, a synthetic model perturbation scheme which combines multiphysics (namely MPHY) and SKEB, called SKEBMPHY, is developed, and the forecast effects of the three schemes of SKEB, MPHY and SKEBMPHY are compared and evaluated. The results show that the SKEB scheme can estimate the stream function and temperature perturbation through a constant kinetic dissipation rate, and the exhibited difference of model integration is correlated to the amplitude of the kinetic dissipation rate. Perturbing the vertica1 structure is not helpful to the difference growth. The comparison results of SKEB, MPHY and SKEBMPHY schemes indicate that the SKEB has advantage on upperair wind spread growth compared to MPHY while MPHY has larger spread for lowlevel temperature than SKEB. The SKEBMPHY scheme exhibits the best perturbation growth characteristic of the three schemes not only for upperair variables but also for lowlevel variables. In addition, the SKEBMPHY scheme has the most skillful performance of the three schemes in terms of ensemble verifications. Furthermore, compared with single MPHY scheme, applying the SKEB scheme will improve precipitation forecast skill of heavy rain. All the results from this study indicate that the SKEB scheme and the SKEBbased synthetic scheme are promising.
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