ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 44 Issue 10 > 2018,44(10):1318-1324. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.10.008 Prev Next
Error Statistical Analysis of Storm Tracking Production of CINRAD in Zhengzhou
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Abstract:
Based on the new generation weather radar data of Zhengzhou from May to September during 2009-2016, this paper checked the storm tracking information products of 5615 cell echoes according to different forecast time, different life cycles and different types of severe convection, processes, and also systematically analyzed the distance errors and direction errors of storm tracking information products of cell echoes and discussed the direction deviation between real condition and forecast products. The results show that the distance errors of 30 and 60 min products are 9.3 and 16.9 km respectively, and the direction error is not so big. The error of distance increases 〖JP2〗with the extension of lead time of forecasts; The average〖JP〗 distance error of the 30 min forecast products of cell echoes with life cycles less than 1 h, 1-2 h and more than 2 h are 9.8, 8.8 and 7.7 km, and the azimuth errors are 25.5°, 25.7° and 22.8° 〖JP2〗respectively. The ave〖JP〗rage distance error of the 60 min forecast products with life cycles of 1-2 h and more than 2 h are 17.3 and 15.9 km, and the direction errors are 24.4° and 22.7°, respectively. With the extension of life cycles of the cells, the errors of direction and distance are decreasing, the errors of northwest airflow type and the southwest airflow type are entirety the same, and the direction and distance errors of the two types of echoes are almost the same in 30 and 60 min. The errors of the southwest airflow type are slightly smaller than those of the northwest airflow type. The number of different types and forecast efficiency are that the observation data biased to the right of the forecast path are more than that of the left side, and the proportion of 30 and 60 min biased to right are 57.5% and 55.6%, respectively.
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