ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 44 Issue 9 > 2018,44(9):1229-1236. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.09.011 Prev Next
Summer Convective Initiation Forecasting in Shanghai Based on Himawari-8 Satellite
- Article
- Figures
- Metrics
- Preview PDF
- Reference
- Related
- Cited by
- Materials
Abstract:
Referring to the method presented by Mecikalski et al (2010a; 2010b), which was based on GOES satellite data to forecast convective initiation (CI), this paper proposes a method for forecasting summer CI by using Himawari8 satellite data in Shanghai. By this method, a specific convective weather event, which occurred in Shanghai on 28 July 2016, is analyzed. Moreover, an experiment for forecasting 12 CI events in Shanghai during July-August of 2016 is implemented to validate the proposed method. The results show that the development of convective cloud cluster can be well reflected by the indicators in the method, and the interference caused by the edges of mature convective clouds can be eliminated. Of the 12 CI events, 11 are forecasted and the average lead time can be about 30 min. However, CI forecasting may be missed by this method if convection is weak.
Keywords:
Project Supported:
Clc Number:
Mobile website
