ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 44 Issue 9 > 2018,44(9):1200-1207. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.09.008 Prev Next
Long-Term Prediction Method of Rice Annual Agricultural Climate Status in Jiangsu Province Based on Climatic Suitability
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Abstract:
The impacts of temperature, sunshine and precipitation climatic suitabilities on rice meteorological output are determined based on the meteorological data and agricultural data from 1961 to 2016 by using the statistical analysis and the climate suitability model, whose parameters have been improved. The comprehensive index of annual agricultural climate status and its prediction model are constructed. The results show that there is a significant correlation between sunshine and precipitation suitabilities and relative meteorological output. The influence weights about sunshine and precipitation suitabilities are 0.460 and 0.428, respectively. Due to sufficient heat resources, the temperature suitability has a small influence on meteorological output (0.112). The correlation coefficient of the composite index of annual agricultural climate status and relative meteorological output based on climate suitability is 0.411, which indicates that the index can better characterize the comprehensive effect of climatic conditions on yield formation. Prediction model of composite index of annual agricultural climate is established by largescale predictors such as atmospheric circulation characteristics and Pacific SST using optimal correlation and stepwise regression. Through historic matching and trying test, the effect of prediction model is ideal and can be put into operation. The prediction results would provide scientific basis for the analysis and prediction of rice yield.
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