ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Synoptic Verification Characteristics of Operational GRAPES-GFS Model Heavy Rain Event Forecast
CSTR:
Author:
Affiliation:

National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081; State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    This study verified the whole 2016 year realtime forecast and parts of 2013-2015 reforecast of heavy rain events and compared them with EC model and T639 model forecasts by using synoptic verification method. After summarizing up all verification results into several systematic biases, some conclusions were excavated to help improve the GRAPESGFS developments and operational applications. 38 heavy rainfall events were verified. Starting from the forecast quality of precipitation, synoptic weather systems and atmospheric physical factors were checked to find the direct causes of the precipitation biases and differences between other operational models. The results showed that some advances have been made in shortrange precipitation forecast, but still north bias exists in some convective rainband forecasts. Precipitation forecasts are weaker than observation in some convective cases which are under weak high level synoptic system background. Wet bias northern to the rainband and strong bias of subtropical vortex were also found in some cases while the precipitation was not over estimated.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation
Related Videos

Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:June 17,2017
  • Revised:February 27,2018
  • Adopted:
  • Online: October 18,2018
  • Published:
Article QR Code

WeChat

Mobile website