ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 44 Issue 4 > 2018,44(4):582-589. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.04.012 Prev Next
Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2016
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Abstract:
Operational positioning, track, intensity and landfall point forecast errors of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Western North Pacific in 2016 are evaluated on the basis of CMA/STI’s “Best-track” dataset. The results show that the performance of TC positioning is a little larger than that in last year, with an average error by all methods is 24.9 km. The track forecast errors of both subjective and objective methods do not continue to decrease, which means the overall forecast performance in 2016 is slightly lower than that in the previous two years. The ECMWF-EPS, NCEP-GEFS and UKMO-EPS have better performance in track prediction than other ensemble prediction systems. No significant improvement in TC intensity prediction by subjective methods has been seen compared with previous years. However, the subjective methods have very small prediction error for the 24 h landfall point of Super Typhoon Sarika in Wanning, Hainan, and the errors are less than 15 km. The landfall prediction performance of global models is better than that of regional models.
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