ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 44 Issue 2 > 2018,44(2):284-293. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2018.02.008 Prev Next
Analysis of the Characteristics and Forecast Difficulties of Typhoons in Western North Pacific in 2016
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Abstract:
The characteristics of typhoons in western North Pacific in 2016 are analyzed by using the besttrack data, the CMA operational forecast data and ECMWF NWP and EPS products. The results show that no typhoon formed in the first half year but many were seen in the midsummer and autumn. This phenomenon was related to the conversion from El Ni〖AKn~D〗o to La Ni〖AKn~D〗a of the eastern equatorial Pacific SST. In some cases, the TC track forecast errors for long leadtime are extremely large, which attributes to the large spread of EPS. To improve the TC track forecasting skill, the regularity of systematic bias of numerical models could be found. The TC intensity forecast error for 24 h is larger than 5 m·s-1, which is unusual for the past decade. For individual cases, the extreme errors are 20-26 m·s-1. Almost no improvement in the TC intensity forecast skill over the recent decades. The main reason is the lack of reliable objective intensity forecasting technique. The qualitative analysis of the intensity change is not enough in the operation. So, it is urgent to establish a quantitative and fine forecast method on TC intensity to improve the TC forecast skill.
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