ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Cause Analysis and Forecast Assessment on Typhoon Landing and Impacting Fujian in 2016
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Affiliation:

Fujian Climate Centre, Fuzhou 350001

Clc Number:

P461

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    Abstract:

    In 2016, there were three landing and four impacting typhoons seen in Fujian Province, showing the nonuniform temporal distribution and serious disasters. Analysis indicates that main causation of Fujian typhoon distribution in 2016 is due to the evolution of SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the response of atmospheric circulation. The enhancing or stronger monsoon trough favors the typhoon groupgenesis from late July to midAugust over northwestern Pacific and the active influence of Typhoons “Meranti” and “Malakas” within a weak in midSeptember, characterized by significant lowfrequency variability. Statistical analysis also demonstrates that the number of typhoon genesis and impacting Fujian may be strongly linked to the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Nearly 70% typhoons are generated when MJO is active during phases 5-7. Prediction assessment suggests that the extendedrangeforecast based on the atmospheric lowfrequency theory could fill the gap between monthlyseasonalterm prediction and shortmediumterm weather forecast.

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History
  • Received:January 24,2017
  • Revised:July 25,2017
  • Adopted:
  • Online: November 07,2017
  • Published:

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