ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 43 Issue 10 > 2017,43(10):1287-1295. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.10.013 Prev Next
Cause Analysis and Forecast Assessment on Typhoon Landing and Impacting Fujian in 2016
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Abstract:
In 2016, there were three landing and four impacting typhoons seen in Fujian Province, showing the nonuniform temporal distribution and serious disasters. Analysis indicates that main causation of Fujian typhoon distribution in 2016 is due to the evolution of SSTA (sea surface temperature anomaly) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the response of atmospheric circulation. The enhancing or stronger monsoon trough favors the typhoon groupgenesis from late July to midAugust over northwestern Pacific and the active influence of Typhoons “Meranti” and “Malakas” within a weak in midSeptember, characterized by significant lowfrequency variability. Statistical analysis also demonstrates that the number of typhoon genesis and impacting Fujian may be strongly linked to the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Nearly 70% typhoons are generated when MJO is active during phases 5-7. Prediction assessment suggests that the extendedrangeforecast based on the atmospheric lowfrequency theory could fill the gap between monthlyseasonalterm prediction and shortmediumterm weather forecast.
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P461
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