ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 43 Issue 10 > 2017,43(10):1278-1286. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.10.012 Prev Next
Precursor Signal Analysis and Prediction for the Landfall Typhoon Intensity over South China
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Abstract:
Since mid1990s, there has been a reduction in frequency and intensity of landfall typhoon over South China (SC). This research reveals that the typhoon variation is jointly affected by the interannual and decadal typhoons and the largescale atmospheric circulation systems. On the other hand, it may be related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). By using the interannual increment method to get rid of the decadal variation, during the eastern La Ni〖AKn~D〗a (the central El Ni〖AKn~D〗o) episode in the preceding winter, it would be a stronger (weaker) crossequatorial flow over 120°-130°E, followed by convergence zone and monsoon trough with the location more northward (southward). This kind of atmosphere and ocean configuration could make the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) stronger (weaker). Therefore, the typhoon would be more powerful, which reflects the interannual interaction among the typhoon, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric circulation systems. Finally, adopting the principal component regression technique based on the interannual incremental method, the prediction model of ACE index is constructed, whose hindcast correlation coefficient is up to 0.80 for the recent 30 years. And the 2014 and 2015 prediction results are consistent with the observations.
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Clc Number:
P461
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