ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 43 Issue 10 > 2017,43(10):1232-1240. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.10.007 Prev Next
A Thunderstorm Explanation Forecast Algorithm Based on Convective Cloud Characteristic Temperature Judgment
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Abstract:
A thunderstorm explanation forecast algorithm based on convective cloud characteristic temperature is proposed in order to satisfy aviation needs for efficient, high spatial and high temporal resolution shortterm thunderstorm forecasts. The algorithm is based on convective cloud top and base temperatures, -20℃ and -10℃ isothermal layer geopotential heights. Forecast performance of the algorithm, which is evaluated using the 2012-2014 observations at 35 airports in China and Global Forecast System (GFS) history products, shows high threat scores, positive skill scores and ±1.5 h forecast time accuracy in all airports. Meanwhile, the algorithm is compared with forecast performance of Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) issued in 2014 by five airport weather services in China. The results show threat scores of the algorithm are a little lower than TAF, and probability of detection equal to or much higher than TAF in the condition issued at least 8 h earlier than TAF. Thunderstorm forecast products based on the algorithm can meet the needs of aviation users.
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Clc Number:
P413,457
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