ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 43 Issue 5 > 2017,43(5):628-633. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.05.012 Prev Next
Performance Verification of MediumRange Forecast by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from December 2016 to February 2017
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Abstract:
The performance of mediumrange forecast is verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from December 2016 to February 2017. The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas well, of which ECMWF model performs the best. The three models perform well in predicting the transitions of temperature at 850 hPa, as they all have smaller biases for southern China than for northern China. Temperature forecasts for northern China, produced by T639 model are lower while temperatures forecasted by Japan model for southern China are higher, and ECMWF model performs better than the other two models in general. For the surface high pressure forecasting during the nationwide cold wave process in February 2017, T639 model performs better in forecasting the intensity of cold high pressure than ECMWF and Japan models. ECMWF model does well in forecasting the location of high center, while T639 and Japan models produce obvious bias.
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