ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 43 Issue 4 > 2017,43(4):501-507. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.04.013 Prev Next
Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2015
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Abstract:
Operational positioning, track, landfall point and intensity forecast error of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Western North Pacific in 2015 were evaluated on the basis of CMA/STI’s “Besttrack” dataset. The results showed that the average TC location errors of CMA is 14.1 km in 2015, better than in 2014. The average track forecast errors by CMA subjective method are 66.2 km (24 h), 119.5 km (48 h), 176.3 km (72 h), 244.3 km (96 h) and 328.5 km (120 h). Meanwhile, the global models’ average track forecast errors are 86.5 km (24 h), 146.5 km (48 h), 215.8 km (72 h), 321.6 km (96 h) and 475.8 km (120 h). Additionally, the average errors of regional models are 84.1 km (24 h), 147.1 km (48 h), and 230.8 km (72 h). In general, the ability of track forecasting by subjective methods, global models and regional models have got a major improvement compared to 2014. However, no marked improvement was found in the intensity forecasting. At present, the overall performance of statistical forecast methods is still better than numerical prediction method in the intensity forecasting.
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