ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 43 Issue 4 > 2017,43(4):434-442. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.04.005 Prev Next
Evaluation on East Asia Summer Monsoon System Prediction by JMA/MRI-CPS2 Model
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Abstract:
Based on hindcast data of the a new version of JMA/MRICPS2 climate prediction model supplied by Tokyo Climate Centre, the skill of predicting East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is evaluated by use of several estimating methods. The results show that some features of EASM can be predicted, including the climatical distribution of the main precipitation centers and the main members of EASM system, but with some systematic biases. Taylor diagram analysis shows the JMA/MRICPS2 model has decent skills in predicting the monsoon indices, as well as the area, intensity and western ridge point of subtropical high. However, for the southnorth position index of the ridge line, its prediction result is poor. Reviewed monthly, the results issued in April and May are better. The spatial distribution of the main modes of MVEOF analyses on EASM are also presented. Similar to the observation, the first mode in hindcast shows the influence of attenuating El Ni〖AKn~D〗o and the second one shows the influence of developing El Ni〖AKn~D〗o. The composite analysis reflects the different responses of EASM circulation to the different phases of El Ni〖AKn~D〗o in developing and decaying years. All of the analyses indicate the model’s high predicting skills in EASM region, which could be used as a reference in climate prediction for the flood season every year.
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