Performance Verification of MediumRange Forecasts by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2016
The midterm forecasting products of T639, ECMWF and Japan numerical models from September to November in 2016 are analyzed and tested. The results show that the three models have good performance on the adjustment and evolution of the Asian midhigh latitude circulation pattern, of which the ECMWF model does the best. Regarding the forecast of the subtropical high, the ECMWF model creates very small error to the position of the subtropical high ridge, while the T639 model predicts the position of the western ridge point of the subtropical high much better. The three models all have good forecasting ability for the 850 hPa temperature change trend, and they do better for the temperature in the South of China than for that in the North. In addition, the three models have different deviations for the center position and intensity of the severe Typhoon Moranti (No.1614) in the 120 h forecast, but the ECMWF model can predict the direction of typhoon track better in its later developing stage. The T639 model is superior to the ECMWF model in forecasting the surface high pressure of the cold wave.