ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 42 Issue 12 > 2016,42(12):1506-1512. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.12.008 Prev Next
Correlation and Regression Analysis of Typhoon Forecast Errors and Ambient Variables by T639
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Abstract:
The correlation between environment forecast fields and track forecast errors of typhoons in Northwestern Pacific Ocean and South China Sea was analyzed by using the output data in 2009 and 2010 from T639, which is the global spectrum model of National Meteorological Centre, and the best track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA. With regression method, a linear track error estimate model was built for the T639 typhoon track forecast errors at lead time from 24 h to 120 h with whole layer vertical shear of environment and typhoon circulation intensity at 400 hPa (with samples of 299, 232, 170, 117 and 84, respectively). The estimate model was examined with the data in 2011 (with samples of 182, 146, 117, 85 and 61, respectively). The preliminary results illustrated that the typhoon track forecast error is positively correlated to ambient vertical wind shear, but being negative correlation with typhoon circulation intensity in each layer, which is most obvious at 400 hPa. The linear prediction model built with the whole layer vertical shear and typhoon circulation intensity at 400 hPa is able to perform estimation to track errors qualitatively, with a preferable result for the 24 h lead time forecast.
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