ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 42 Issue 12 > 2016,42(12):1476-1482. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.12.005 Prev Next
StateLevel Gridded Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting System
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Abstract:
A statelevel gridded quantitative precipitation forecasting system has been built by using the fusion of subjective and objective precipitation inversion, precipitation statistical downscaling, time split method and other techniques. The technical structure of this system is reasonable, and its module features a clear division. It has been put into meteorological operation in the National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration since June 2014, being able to generate gridded quantitative precipitation forecast products with forecast time length of 0-168 h, 10 km resolution and 3 h interval. The gridded precipitation forecast of the 13th tropical cyclone “Soudelor” in 2015 is tested and the results show that, compared to the deterministic model forecasts of the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the subjective forecasts, this forecast can better reflect the spatiotemporal distribution of typhoon precipitation, and more accurately express the severe rainstorm center in northeast of Fujian and southeast of Zhejiang. The overall effect of the gridded forecasts from April to September 2015 is verified. The results indicate that, compared to the deterministic model forecasts of the ECMWF and the forecasters’ subjective forecasts after inversedistance objective analysis, the forecast products can maintain the same predictive accuracy as subjective forecasts, and meanwhile can obviously improve the degree of spatiotemporal precision of precipitation forecasts.
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