ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 42 Issue 12 > 2016,42(12):1445-1455. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.12.002 Prev Next
Situation and Tendency of Operational Technologies in Short and MediumRange Weather Forecast
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Abstract:
Operational technologies in short and mediumrange weather forecast need further strengthening for the development of seamless and intensified weather forecast operational framework. Through reviewing present status of development, we find that, by the meteorological modernization during 2011-2015, the preliminary digitization for the technical flow in the short and mediumrange operational forecast has been developed in the national and some provincial operational units of China, including the numerical weather prediction system, the objective method application, the subjective editing and the downscaling gridded postprocessing. However, comparison with the developed countries shows that there are still some problems in the short and mediumrange operational technologies of China, such as lowerlevel development of numerical model, insufficiency of complete and indepth application of the objective technical method, lack of effective technology tools to support calibration of forecasters and the weak foundation of processing technique for gridding. Based on the review of present status of development and the analysis of current problems, suggestions are made that in the future development, the foundation role of the independent numerical model system should be enhanced, the objective techniques of forecast information extraction and calibration should be further developed, platform of subjective and objective blending techniques and tools should be developed greatly, and the development concepts of the downscaling gridded processing technique should be improved, followed by detailed exposition. Finally, ideas for reference are provided on four aspects, which are the basic data support for technical development, selection of the technical route, laws of technical development as well as exchange and sharing of techniques.
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