ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 42 Issue 11 > 2016,42(11):1372-1378. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.11.009 Prev Next
Exploration and Application of the Extended Period Rainstorm Forecast in Shanghai
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Abstract:
Based on the wind field and vapor field at 700 hPa of NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis dataset, and the precipitation data of 11 stations in Shanghai, this paper applies the method of the extended period rainstorm forecast in Shanghai. Based on the data of 112 rainstorm days in the past 10 years, the static prediction model of low frequency system is established. One is the type of northern lowfrequency anticyclone and the south lowfrequency cyclone, while the other is the type of northern lowfrequency cyclone and the south lowfrequency anticyclone. Further research shows that rainstorms with a daily rainfall of 100 mm or more are mainly lowfrequency cyclones, accounting for 60% of the total number of rainstorms. Lowfrequency cyclonetype mobile characteristics are very consistent in the 30 days before the occurrence of rainstorms. This consistency can be used to establish the dynamic prediction model of heavy rain. Using this method, the heaviest rainfalls in the flood season in the last 5 years are forecasted accurately, and the lead time is more than 12 days.
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