ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 42 Issue 10 > 2016,42(10):1176-1183. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.10.002 Prev Next
Verification of SMSWARMS V2.0 Model Forecast Results
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Abstract:
Forecast products from SMSWARMS V2.0, including rainfall, 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, geopotential height at 500 hPa and temperature， wind and relative humidity at 850 hPa are verified. Overall, the forecasts of SMSWARMS V2.0 are significantly improved. The improved TS and ETS of rainfall forecast for all grades indicate that the model can capture the occurrence of precipitation events better. The verification on 2 m temperature also show large improvement. Moreover, the monthly and average monthly mean RMSE value of 10 m wind speed of the new model is lower than the old one. Both 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa wind field from the new model are better, the same results for the correlation coefficient of 850 hPa wind forecast. However, there is little improvement in the 850 hPa relative humidity forecast. Case analysis shows that the heavy precipitation forecast product of SMSWARMS V2.0 has more reference significance than that of SMSWARMS V1.0.
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