ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Verification of SMSWARMS V2.0 Model Forecast Results
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    Abstract:

    Forecast products from SMSWARMS V2.0, including rainfall, 2 m temperature, 10 m wind speed, geopotential height at 500 hPa and temperature, wind and relative humidity at 850 hPa are verified. Overall, the forecasts of SMSWARMS V2.0 are significantly improved. The improved TS and ETS of rainfall forecast for all grades indicate that the model can capture the occurrence of precipitation events better. The verification on 2 m temperature also show large improvement. Moreover, the monthly and average monthly mean RMSE value of 10 m wind speed of the new model is lower than the old one. Both 500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa wind field from the new model are better, the same results for the correlation coefficient of 850 hPa wind forecast. However, there is little improvement in the 850 hPa relative humidity forecast. Case analysis shows that the heavy precipitation forecast product of SMSWARMS V2.0 has more reference significance than that of SMSWARMS V1.0.

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History
  • Received:August 07,2015
  • Revised:August 30,2016
  • Adopted:
  • Online: October 28,2016
  • Published:
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