Performance Verification of MediumRange Forecasts by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from March to May 2016
The performance of mediumrange forecasts is verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from March to May 2016. The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas well, of which ECMWF model performs the best. The three models all perform well in predicting the transitions of temperature at 850 hPa, as they all have smaller biases for Southern China than for Northern China, but ECMWF model shows a better comprehensive performance than the other two. Taking the sandstorm process seen in 3-5 March as a case, we see that T639 and ECMWF models are more effective than Japan model in mediumrange forecasting of the surface high pressure system which incurred the sandstorm weather process this time.