ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 42 Issue 5 > 2016,42(5):637-642. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.05.014 Prev Next
Performance Verification of MediumRange Forecasting by T639 and ECMWF and Japan Model from December 2015 to February 2016
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Abstract:
The mediumrange forecasting performances of T639, ECMWF and Japan models from December 2015 to February 2016 are verified and compared. The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitudes well, of which the performance of ECMWF model is the best. For temperature at 850 hPa, Japan model's mean forecast error is smaller than the errors of other two models. ECMWF model forecasts higher temperature for both the northern and southern parts of China, while T639 model produces a lower temperature forecast for northern part of China. For the surface high forecasting during the nationwide cold wave process in January 2016, T639 model performs much better in forecasting the intensity of cold high than ECMWF and Japan models, which underestimate the intensity in most time.
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