ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Research of FlashHeavyRain Forecast Model in Jiangsu Based on Physical Parameters
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    Abstract:

    Fiftyone physical parameters are calculated by using upper sounding data from the Xuzhou, Sheyang and Nanjing Stations from June to August in 2004-2013. Based on the significance test of the correlation coefficient between physical parameters and flashheavyrain events (flash heavy rain that occurred after 0-6 h of the observation time) and the analysis of numerical distribution of physical parameters in the flashheavyrain samples and the nonflashheavyrain samples, 16 physical parameters of prediction are selected finally. Through analyzing the indication to the flashheavyrain events of different types of physical parameters, and according to the different threshold of physical parameters in each month, different criteria for the flashheavyrain events are determined respectively. 〖JP2〗Thus, the flashheavyrain〖JP〗 forecast model for summer shorttime heavy rains in Jiangsu is established by the membership function conversion method. The fitting test and forecasting test of the forecast model are verified, and the results are good.

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History
  • Received:June 11,2015
  • Revised:February 02,2016
  • Adopted:
  • Online: June 01,2016
  • Published:

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