ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 42 Issue 5 > 2016,42(5):521-531. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.05.001 Prev Next
The New Generation of ENSO Prediction System in Beijing Climate Centre and Its Predictions for the 2014/2016 Super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o Event
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Abstract:
El Ni〖AKn~D〗oSouth Oscillation (ENSO), as a dominant mode on the interannual variability, has a big implication in shortterm climate prediction in China. In the past three decades, significant changes occurred in ENSO phenomenon such as its own properties, types and climate impacts, which have brought a big challenge for climate prediction and disaster prevention and reduction in China. Since 2012, Beijing Climate Center in China Meteorological Administration (BCC/CMA) has pushed forward the research and development for the new generation of ENSO monitoring, analysis and prediction system (SEMAP2.0) in order to markedly improve the operational capability of ENSO monitoring and prediction in BCC/CMA. The SEMAP2.0 integrates several latest results in international ENSO studies and develops many new techniques for ENSO monitoring and prediction further. This new system is made up of five subsystems including the realtime monitoring, dynamical diagnosis and attribution analysis, physicsbased statistical prediction for the two type s of ENSO, interpretation and application of ensemble forecasts in climate model, and analoguedynamical correction prediction. The 20yr independent validation shows a relatively highlevel prediction skill that the temporal anomaly correlation score reaches 0.8 in terms of ensemblemean Ni〖AKn~D〗o3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly index with 6 months lead. The SEMAP2.0 started running as an operational system in BCC/CMA at the end of 2015 and has issued a bunch of operational products on the website. During its development, this system has been applied to realtime operational applications. It has given a basically reasonable indication for the El Ni〖AKn~D〗o fluctuation occurring in the 2014 summerautumn seasons, accurately predicting the weak centralPacific El Ni〖AKn~D〗o type in the 2014/2015 winter and its continual growth after the 2015 spring as well as the type transferring to the strong easternPacific El Ni〖AKn~D〗o type during the 2015 summer. Also, this system has exactly caught the peak intensity and time of the super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event as initiating in September 2015, one season lead, and further predicted that this super event will terminate at the late spring in 2016.
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