ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
The New Generation of ENSO Prediction System in Beijing Climate Centre and Its Predictions for the 2014/2016 Super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o Event
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    Abstract:

    El Ni〖AKn~D〗oSouth Oscillation (ENSO), as a dominant mode on the interannual variability, has a big implication in shortterm climate prediction in China. In the past three decades, significant changes occurred in ENSO phenomenon such as its own properties, types and climate impacts, which have brought a big challenge for climate prediction and disaster prevention and reduction in China. Since 2012, Beijing Climate Center in China Meteorological Administration (BCC/CMA) has pushed forward the research and development for the new generation of ENSO monitoring, analysis and prediction system (SEMAP2.0) in order to markedly improve the operational capability of ENSO monitoring and prediction in BCC/CMA. The SEMAP2.0 integrates several latest results in international ENSO studies and develops many new techniques for ENSO monitoring and prediction further. This new system is made up of five subsystems including the realtime monitoring, dynamical diagnosis and attribution analysis, physicsbased statistical prediction for the two type s of ENSO, interpretation and application of ensemble forecasts in climate model, and analoguedynamical correction prediction. The 20yr independent validation shows a relatively highlevel prediction skill that the temporal anomaly correlation score reaches 0.8 in terms of ensemblemean Ni〖AKn~D〗o3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly index with 6 months lead. The SEMAP2.0 started running as an operational system in BCC/CMA at the end of 2015 and has issued a bunch of operational products on the website. During its development, this system has been applied to realtime operational applications. It has given a basically reasonable indication for the El Ni〖AKn~D〗o fluctuation occurring in the 2014 summerautumn seasons, accurately predicting the weak centralPacific El Ni〖AKn~D〗o type in the 2014/2015 winter and its continual growth after the 2015 spring as well as the type transferring to the strong easternPacific El Ni〖AKn~D〗o type during the 2015 summer. Also, this system has exactly caught the peak intensity and time of the super El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event as initiating in September 2015, one season lead, and further predicted that this super event will terminate at the late spring in 2016.

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History
  • Received:April 06,2016
  • Revised:May 09,2016
  • Adopted:
  • Online: June 01,2016
  • Published:
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