Performance Verification of MediumRange Forecast by T639 and ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2015
The mediumrange forecasts are verified and compared for the models of T639, ECMWF and Japan from September to November 2015. The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas well, of which ECMWF model performs the best. The ECMWF model has a good performance in predicting the position of the ridge line of western Pacific subtropical high, while T639 model is better at predicting the position of west ridge point. The three models do well in predicting the transitions of temperature at 850 hPa, and the temperature forecast biases for southern China are smaller than for northern China. As far as Typhoon Mujigae (No.1522) is concerned, the three models show different biases in its track and intensity forecasts, especially they are weak in the intensity forecasting at the early stage of the typhoon. T639 and ECMWF perform better in forecasting mediumrange static stability weather, while ECMWF does even better than T639 when forecasting cold airs that disperse fog and haze.