ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
The Improvement of Predicting Extreme Heat Event of Eastern China in Summer 2013 Through Correcting Lateral Boundary Condition of Regional Climate Model
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Abstract:
The 28year hindcast experiments (1983-2010) and the 2013 summer prediction are performed by using regional climate model (RegCM3) which is embedded in the global atmosphere ocean coupled model (BCC_CM1.0) whose climatological means are adjusted based on the NCEPR2 reanalysis datasets. A traditional dynamical downscaling (TDD) parallel run by using RegCM3 that is driven by original BCC_CM1.0 output is also conducted. The results indicate that after using GCM (Global Climate Model) bias corrected method, the capability of hindcasting multiyear mean summer temperature and precipitation is greatly improved. Compared to TDD approach, although the predictability of temperature anomaly in northeastern China declines, the prediction of summer extreme heat event over the central part of Eastern China in 2013 is remarkably enhanced. The enhanced performance of hindcasting multiyear averaged Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) mainly leads to the improvement of predicting summer extreme heat event in 2013.
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