ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 41 Issue 12 > 2015,41(12):1538-1544. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.12.012 Prev Next
Study on the Prediction Model of Suitable Transplanting Date of Rice in Jiangsu Based on LargeScale Factors of Sea Surface Temperature
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Abstract:
By using the agrometeorological data in Jiangsu Province, and the statistical analysis method, this research reveals that there is a significant positive correlation between the suitable transplanting date of rice and the effective accumulated temperature larger than 10 degrees celsius during the period of seeding and transplanting. This means that the suitable transplanting date of rice could be determined by the effective accumulated temperature. According to the principle of airsea interaction， the concept of teleconnection and through seeking for the forecast factors of SST for the effective accumulated temperature, the high correlated SST predictors are selected by using the optimal relevant technique and spatial topologic analysis method. Then, the stability and independence test is carried out so as to ensure the reliability of the SST predictors. Moreover, the longterm prediction model of the suitable transplanting date of rice is established. Furthermore, through the historical fitting and forecast verification, the result of the prediction model is found reasonable. The suitable transplanting date can be predicted by the model at least two weeks in advance. So, the prediction results could give some guidance for agriculture.
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