Preliminary Study of Precursor and Its Application in Summer Climate Prediction and Its Complexity in 2014
Possible precursor of the summer climate in 2014 was reviewed. Its characteristics are that in early 2014 central and eastern equatorial Pacific had a normal but a little bit cold situation, and then developed to warm state. It was projected to have an El Ni〖AKn~D〗o event in the summer, the Greenland sea ice would be more in the winter, and the snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau would be a bit more than normal. These features had significant effects on the East Asian summer monsoon later. By analyzing the possible effects of these precursors, summer rainfall belt in 2014 was predicted to be in the position by north, but more southerly than that of 2013. The rainfall areas are mainly located in the region from the southern part of North China to Jianghuai Area. Comparing the observation with prediction, big differences are found. The distribution pattern with more rainfall in the South and less in the North was not predicted. However, the prediction is consistent with the observation over the Northeast, North China, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, the west of South China, and the south of Southwest. In addition, the prediction of tropical cyclones, Meiyu and the rainy season in North China agrees with the observation. Finally, the complexity and problems of flood season climate prediction were analyzed and discussed.