Performance Verification of the Medium Range Forecasting for T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from December 2013 to February 2014
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Abstract:
In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639, a synoptic verification on its medium range forecasts from December 2013 to February 2014 is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that all the three models have good performances on the aspect of predicting the large scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas. For temperatures at 850 hPa, ECMWF’s prediction error is the least among the three models, followed by Japan and T639 models in order. Compared with the temperature prediction for the last autumn, the results from the three models are not so good. For the sea level pressure, ECMWF model still shows the best performance among the models. As a whole, the ECMWF model is much better in forecasting most weather systems and meteorological elements than the T639 and Japan models.