ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 40 Issue 4 > 2014,40(4):502-509. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2014.04.013 Prev Next
Review of the Precursor and Its Application in Summer Climate Prediction in 2013
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Abstract:
The possible precursors of the summer climate in 2013 are reviewed which are that in the winter of 2012/2013, ENSO neutral with slightly cold condition persists in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, the Arctic sea ice area is significantly less, and the snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau is less than normal. These features have an important impact on the following East Asia summer monsoon. By diagnosing and analyzing the possible influence of these precursors, the features of stronger East Asian summer monsoon and main rainfall belt locating the northern China are successfully captured in the prediction issued by the National Climate Centre of CMA in late March 2013. In addition, the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon is earlier, the Meiyu along the middle low reaches of Yangtze River Valley is less with later onset and short rainfall period, and the rainy season in North China is earlier and more than normal. These intra seasonal features are all successfully predicted. Finally, the imperfection in the summer climate prediction is discussed.
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