ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
Study of the Method for Hail Forecasting and Warning in Southern Yunnan
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    Abstract:

    Based on the air sounding data, the CIND3830 CC CINRAD data and surface observation data, the hail event processes seen in Puer and Xishuangbanna during 2004-2011 are analyzed. The results show that: (1) hail can be forecasted 60 min in advance when initial and developing features of hail cloud appear in the radar echo images. (2) Hail can be forecasted 12 to 102 min earlier before the event occurs, if echo composite reflectivity ≥55 dBz, width ≥ 12.0 km, gradient ≥ 15 dBz·km-1, H45 dBz ≥ 7.5 km, H45 dBz-H0 ≥ 3.1 km and H45 dBz-H-20≥ -0.5 km during February-May, H45 dBz-H0 ≥ 2.0 km and H45 dBz-H-20 ≥ -1.2 km, VIL ≥ 30 kg·m-2, DVIL ≥ 3.0 g·m-3 during June-August. (3) If the echo shows the features of weak shear, echo top in 45 dBz≥7.5 km, H45 dBz-H0≥3.1 km and H45 dBz-H-20≥-0.5 km during February-May, H45 dBz-H0≥2.0 km and H45 dBz-H-20≥-1.2 km during June-August, hail can be forecasted with 18-54 min in advance. (4) In addition to squall line and downburst, hail can be forecasted 12-54 min earlier if VIL≥30 kg·m-2, DVIL≥3.0 g·m-3. Besides, this paper summarizes the characteristics of hail cloud lifetime, and tests forecast indice by using the hail process in 2012.

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History
  • Received:December 02,2012
  • Revised:May 08,2013
  • Adopted:
  • Online: March 25,2014
  • Published:

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