Research on Apple Wintering Frost Damage Risk Distribution Based on County Level in Shaanxi Province
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Abstract:
In order to effectively use local climate resources, reasonably plan and develop Shaanxi apple industry, and optimize apple planting layout in county level to get healthful and sustainable product, the research was carried out and described in this paper. Transplanting probability was conducted according to the relationship between wintering temperature in 3 apple planting counties and its regional automatic weather stations. By using winter temperature data during 1971 to 2011 from the weather stations of the 3 apple plant counties, this paper calculated the probability of damage to apple plant by frost at different weather stations as well as their regional automatic weather stations. According to the result of analyzing more than 30 historical apple wintering disaster cases, damage loss coefficient was got encoding 0.3, 0.5, 0.7 as mild, moderate, severe level, separately. Besides, by using the fundamental theories and model of climate hazard risk, the apple wintering frost damage risk index of the representative apple plant counties’ weather stations was successfully obtained. The result is visualized by drawing the apple wintering frost damage down scaling risk maps in using GIS system.