ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 39 Issue 10 > 2013,39(10):1350-1358. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2013.10.014 Prev Next
Verification on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Northwest Pacific in 2012
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Abstract:
Operational positioning, track and intensity forecast error of tropical cyclones (TCs) over Northwest Pacific in 2012 are evaluated. The results show that the performance of TC positioning remains the same as that in the previous years, with an average error by all methods is 23.4 km. The average track forecast errors of domestic subjective methods are 94.3 km (24 h), 168.2 km (48 h) and 284.2 km (72 h). Compared with 2011, the performance of 24 h track forecast made by the National Meteorological Centre of CMA has made great progress in 2012. The average track forecast errors of global models are 96.8 km (24 h), 177.2 km (48 h), 283.6 km (72 h), 382.3 km (96 h) and 583.6 km (120 h), of which the performances of some numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are approaching to the mean level of subjective forecasts, but the best subjective method still has the positive skill compared with any NWP method. In addition, through comparing the track errors of advanced NWP models in other countries the track forecast ability of regional NWPs in China still has a large gap. The average absolute intensity errors of four typhoon operational centers at 24 h, 48 h and 72 h are 4.11~4.63 m·s-1, 6.10~6.90 m·s-1 and 6.84~8.71 m·s-1, respectively. There is always a systematic bias in some objective intensity forecast methods. These methods have predicted well for the 24 h landfall location of “Haikui”, but not so good for “Saola”.
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