ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 39 Issue 9 > 2013,39(9):1217-1220. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2013.09.019 Prev Next
Research on Forecasting Monthly Rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley Using Madden Julian Oscillation
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Abstract:
RMM1, RMM2 and amplitude averaged from 1 to 25th are used to take the place of the average monthly. Right field consists of RMM1, RMM2 and amplitude of the preceding month, and left field consists of monthly rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley. The relationships between the two fields are studied by SVD. With optimization technique the time coefficients of the left field are estimated on the basis of the time coefficient of the right field according to the total number of stations which have the same sign between estimated anomaly and observed anomaly. Rainfall fields are retrieved by linear combination of the time coefficients and the vectors. Even though few of first models of SVD are above the significant level, the actual predictions achieve good results.
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