ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 39 Issue 9 > 2013,39(9):1210-1216. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2013.09.018 Prev Next
Improvement of a Summer Rain Field Predictive Model in Shandong Province and Its Verification
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Abstract:
In this paper, a predictive model constructed in 2002 to forecast summer rain field in Shandong Province is significantly improved. On the basis of the original prediction factors of 100 hPa and 500 hPa geopotential heights and sea surface temperature of the key zone, teleconnection circulation indices characterizing monthly development and regional circulation of weather system are taken into account. Climate background of the atmospheric circulation abrupt change is considered when selecting data of 1977-2008 period to construct the model. And besides of mathematical analysis, schemes considering physical implications of the predictors are included in the new model. The new model, the original model and the 2002 predictive model are comparatively evaluated by using the 2009-2011 observation data. Results show that performance of the improved model is much better than the original one. The new model has also good performance of predictions in forecasting spatial distributions of precipitation.
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