ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 39 Issue 9 > 2013,39(9):1190-1196. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2013.09.015 Prev Next
PC Stepwise Regression Forecasting Model of Climatic Field of Fujian Flood Period Rainfall
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Abstract:
A principal component stepwise regression prediction model of climatic field for the flood period rainfall in Fujian Province is established. The model predicts the precipitation of flood period in Fujian through predicting the principal component of the climatic field of that period. This study takes the 500 hPa height and the sea surface temperature of Pacific Ocean and the sea level pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and many principal component factors in various seasons and regions as predictors, calculating and analyzing the distribution and types of the principal components of the flood period rainfall in Fujian. Through correlation screening and double test stepwise regression, a prediction equation is developed for the principal component of the Fujian flood period rainfall. By applying this model to predicting the flood period precipitation in Fujian in 2012, it is found that the model is capable to predict the precipitation and its distribution in the flood period in Fujian.
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