ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 39 Issue 9 > 2013,39(9):1103-1110. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2013.09.003 Prev Next
Overview of Precursory Signals of Seasonal Climate Prediction and Its Application in Summer 2012
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Abstract:
In this paper, the possible predictors of the summer climate in 2012 in China are reviewed based on both the dynamic forecasts and the statistical predictions. In the winter of 2011/2012, the La Nina event reaches its peak, the Arctic sea ice area is much less than its climatology, the intensity of the Antarctic oscillation is the second higher since 1979, and the snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau is more but warmer than normal. Under the influence of these abnormal features, the East Asian monsoon becomes stronger in the following summer and the main rainfall belt locates in northern China. These basic characteristics have been captured successfully in the prediction issued by the National Climate Centre of CMA in early April. Besides, the air temperatures in most regions in the country are warmer, the tropical cyclones are more active in June-August, the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon is earlier, the Chinese Meiyu along the middle low reaches of Yangtze River Valley is less, and the rainfall in North China is earlier and more. In the last part of this paper, the predictability and the difficulty of the seasonal rainfall forecast are discussed, and the scientific questions together with the operational problems are also listed.
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