ISSN 1000-0526
CN 11-2282/P
CN 11-2282/P
Archive > Volume 39 Issue 6 > 2013,39(6):665-674. DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2013.06.001 Prev Next
Application of Physical Decomposition of Atmospheric Variables to the Prediction of Extreme Temperature Events
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Abstract:
The observed geopotential height and temperature in the troposphere stratosphere can be physically decomposed into four components to estimate climatic states and anomalies, namely zonal mean symmetric climate, asymmetric climate, zonal mean instantaneous symmetric anomaly and instantaneous asymmetric anomaly. In this paper, the asymmetric anomaly was extracted from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and used as early signals to indicate the regional heat wave and low temperature events that occurred in North China in June and December 2005, respectively. The result shows that the surface temperature events are some responses to atmospheric disturbances in troposphere and stratosphere. For the heat wave event, its early signals of positive temperature anomaly at 850 hPa and positive height anomaly at 250 hPa can be traced from Europe 7 days ahead, while the early signals of low temperature event are negative temperature anomaly at 850 hPa and negative height anomaly at 300 hPa which are also from Europe with a lead of 13 days. The anomalous synoptic chart provided by this physical decomposition is a useful tool to predict the surface temperature events.
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